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2024-12-14 10:22:14
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Adobe's US stocks fell about 9% before the market, and the company's annual performance guidance was worse than expected.IEA Monthly Report: The decision of OPEC+has reduced the potential oversupply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said today that the recent decision of OPEC+member countries to postpone the planned production increase has "greatly reduced" the potential oversupply next year. Nevertheless, IEA said that in view of the persistent overproduction in some OPEC+member countries, strong supply growth outside the alliance and moderate global oil demand growth, there may still be a serious oversupply in the oil market in 2025. IEA predicts that even if all OPEC+production reduction plans remain unchanged, supply will exceed demand by about 950,000 barrels per day next year. IEA said that if OPEC members start increasing production in April as planned, the oversupply will increase to 1.4 million barrels per day.This year's 2 trillion special bonds for replacing hidden debts have all disclosed that the planned issuance amount of six provinces exceeds 10 million. According to the documents disclosed on China Bond Information Network, Beijing plans to issue 4.7 billion yuan of special bonds for refinancing to replace existing hidden debts, of which the issuance scale of 3-year, 7-year and 10-year special bonds for refinancing is 800 million yuan, 2.725 billion yuan and 1.175 billion yuan respectively. It is worth mentioning that since November 12, the total amount of refinancing special bonds to be issued or issued to replace existing implicit debts has reached 2 trillion yuan. This means that all the refinancing special bonds used by local governments to replace hidden debts have been disclosed this year. (澎湃)


Schlegel, Governor of the Swiss National Bank: We still have ammunition left over in terms of interest rates. Inflationary pressure has dropped in the medium term. Our main tool is the policy interest rate, through which we can influence the economy and exchange rate.Reuters survey: Most economists expect Britain to basically avoid the impact of Trump tariffs. According to the Reuters survey, most economists expect that US President-elect Trump will impose tariffs of less than 10% or not at all on goods imported from Britain next year, which will have little impact on the British economy. This is in stark contrast to a similar poll last month. Last month's polls showed that people were generally worried that the EU would be hit harder. Britain officially withdrew from the EU in 2020. Part of the reason why economists are more optimistic about Britain is that although one-fifth of Britain's total trade is with the United States, the proposed tariffs will focus on goods, and only one-third of Britain's exports are goods.Reuters survey: In December, the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged or cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year. All 71 economists surveyed during December 6-11 predicted that the Bank of England would keep its target interest rate unchanged at 4.75% at its meeting on December 19. Among the economists who predict the interest rate outlook until the end of 2025, about 54% (36 out of 67) expect to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of next year, another 17 expect to cut interest rates by at least 125 basis points, and 14 expect to cut interest rates by at most 75 basis points.


Schlegel, Governor of Swiss National Bank: If monetary policy needs to be further relaxed, interest rate reduction is still the main tool. The Swiss National Bank is still willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market when necessary.Turkish Defense Ministry source: Syrian allies continue to advance in northern Syria to "eliminate terrorism".Liu Shijin: To expand consumption, we should manage from the source, and give priority to improving basic public services and consumption of low-and middle-income groups. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the 13th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Economic Commission and former deputy director of the the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out in his speech at the main forum of the 2024 Southern Finance and Economics International Forum that the macro-economy is picking up, but it is also facing the increasing pressure of insufficient total demand, especially insufficient consumer demand, and the focus of which is insufficient service consumption. We should give priority to improving basic public services and the consumption environment of low-and middle-income groups through "source governance" to promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. On the basis of short-term stimulus policies, combined with medium-and long-term reforms, we will solve the institutional problems that restrict the expansion of consumption and help China's economy achieve high-quality development. "At present, it is necessary to distinguish the problems caused by insufficient demand from the causes of insufficient demand." Liu Shijin pointed out that from the perspective of international comparison, the lack of consumption demand in China at this stage is a structural deviation. In Liu Shijin's view, it is necessary to identify the key points or pain points in expanding consumer demand at this stage. First, service consumption based on basic public services, including education, medical and health care, affordable housing, social security, culture, sports and entertainment, financial services, transportation and communication; Second, the middle and low-income class with migrant workers as the focus; Third, people-centered, urbanization and urban-rural integration. (21 Finance)

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